学术前沿速递｜经济学顶刊AER，QJE，JPE，RES，Econometrica 最新发表（4.8-4.14）
学术前沿速递
学术前沿速递
最新——学术前沿速递｜经济学顶刊AER，QJE，JPE，RES，Econometrica最新发表（4.8-4.14）
本文汇总了经济学国际顶级期刊《American Economic Review》、《Quarterly Journal of Economics》、《Journal of Political Economy》、《The Review of Economic Studies》和《Econometrica》近期即将发表的论文，提供经济学研究领域最新学术动态。
01. Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade
Posted on: 08 April 2022
Simon Galle
BI Norwegian Business School
Abstract: We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. The model generalizes the specific-factors intuition to a setting with labor reallocation, leads to a parsimonious formula for the group-level welfare effects from trade, and nests the aggregate results in Arkolakis et al. (2012). We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined as commuting zones. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as four times the average gain. However, adjusting for plausible measures of inequality aversion barely affects the welfare gains. We also develop and estimate an extension of the model that endogenizes labor force participation and unemployment, finding similar welfare effects from the China shock.
我们建立了一个具有异质性工人的多部门引力模型来量化贸易的总体和群体层面的福利效应。该模型将特定因素的直觉推广到劳动力再分配的环境中，得到了贸易带来的群体层面福利效应的简明公式，并将Arkolakis等人（2012）的总体结果嵌套起来。我们使用中国冲击驱动的制造业就业变化和定义为通勤区的美国群体的平均收入之间的结构关系来估计该模型。我们发现，中国的冲击增加了平均福利，但一些群体的损失高达平均收益的四倍。然而，对不平等厌恶的合理措施进行调整，几乎没有影响到福利收益。我们还开发并估计了一个将劳动力参与和失业内生化的模型的扩展，发现中国的冲击也会产生类似的福利效应。
Link: https://www.restud.com/paper/slicing-the-pie-quantifying-the-aggregate-and-distributional-effects-of-trade/
02. A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market
Posted on: 08 April 2022
Gideon Bornstein
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract: We use new, comprehensive micro data on oil fields to build and estimate a structural model of the oil industry embedded in a general equilibrium model of the world economy. In the model, firms that belong to OPEC act as a cartel. The remaining firms are a competitive fringe. We use the model to study the macroeconomic impact of the advent of fracking. Fracking weakens the OPEC cartel, leading to a large long-run decline in oil prices. Fracking also reduces the volatility of oil prices in the long run because fracking firms can respond more quickly to changes in oil demand.
我们使用关于油田的新的、全面的微观数据来建立和估计一个嵌入世界经济一般均衡模型中的石油工业结构模型。在该模型中，属于欧佩克的公司作为一个卡特尔行事。其余的公司是一个竞争性的边缘群体。我们用这个模型来研究压裂技术的出现对宏观经济的影响。压裂技术削弱了欧佩克卡特尔，导致油价的长期大幅下降。压裂也减少了长期的石油价格波动，因为压裂公司可以对石油需求的变化做出更快速的反应。
Link: https://www.restud.com/paper/a-world-equilibrium-model-of-the-oil-market/
01. The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age
Accepted: 11 April 2022
Maria Waldinger
ifo Center for Labor and Demographic Economics
Abstract: Recent studies consistently find important economic effects of year-to-year weather Hluctuations. I study the economie effects of long-term and gradual climate change over 250 years in the Little Ice Age(1600-1850),during which people and economies had time to adapt.Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change.Temperature impacted the economy through its effect on agricul. tural productivity and mortality.To adapt to the Little Ice Age,economies increased trade and changed land use.I discuss the relevance of these results for understanding the impact of today's climate change,especially in developing countries.
最近的研究不断发现逐年的天气波动对经济的重要影响。我研究了小冰河时期（1600-1850）250年的长期和渐进的气候变化对经济的影响，在此期间，人们和经济有时间去适应。结果显示长期气候变化对经济有显著的负面影响。温度通过对农业生产力和死亡率的影响对经济产生了影响。为了适应小冰河时期，各经济体增加了贸易并改变了土地使用。我讨论了这些结果为了理解今天气候变化影响的意义，特别是在发展中国家。
Link: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/720393
