学术前沿速递｜经济学顶刊AER，QJE，JPE，RES，Econometrica 最新发表（4.29-5.5）
本文汇总了经济学国际顶级期刊《American Economic Review》、《Quarterly Journal of Economics》、《Journal of Political Economy》、《The Review of Economic Studies》和《Econometrica》近期即将发表的论文，提供经济学研究领域最新学术动态。
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Advance Articles
01.Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform
Posted on: 29 April 2022
Zhao Chen
Fudan University
Xian Jiang
Duke University
Zhikuo Liu
Fudan University
Juan Carlos Suarez Serrato
Duke University and NBER
Daniel Yi Xu
Duke University and NBER
Abstract: We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behavior. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36% relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.
我们将企业层面投资的零散性纳入税收政策如何影响投资行为的研究中。研究表明，税收政策可以直接影响大额投资。对税收政策的广义利润反应是理解不同税收改革的效果和设计有效刺激政策的关键。我们通过研究中国2009年的增值税改革来说明这些结果，这项改革降低了投资的税收成本，减少了部分不可逆转性--新资本和旧资本之间的价格差距。利用全面的税收调查数据和差额设计，我们估计由投资高峰推动的相对投资增长为36%。我们使用一个适合改革的简化形式效果的动态投资模型，表明直接减少企业不作为可能性的政策对刺激投资更为有效。
Link:https://www.restud.com/paper/tax-policy-and-lumpy-investment-behavior-evidence-from-chinas-vat-reform/
02. What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output
Posted on: 29 April 2022
Diether W. Beuermann
Inter-American Development Bank
Kirabo Jackson
Northwestern University
Laia Navarro-Sola
IIES, Stockholm University, and Francisco Pardo, University of Texas at Austin
Abstract: To explore whether schools’ causal impacts on test scores measure their overall impact on students, we exploit plausibly exogenous school assignments and data from Trinidad and Tobago to estimate the causal impacts of individual schools on several outcomes. Schools’ impacts on high-stakes tests are weakly related to impacts on important outcomes such as arrests, dropout, teen motherhood, and formal labor-market participation. To examine if parents’ school preferences are related to these causal impacts, we link them to parents’ ranked lists of schools and employ discrete-choice models to infer preferences for schools. Parents choose schools that improve high-stakes tests even conditional on peer quality and average outcomes. Parents also choose schools that reduce criminality and teen motherhood, and increase labor-market participation. School choices among parents of low-achieving students are relatively more strongly related to schools’ impacts on non-test-score outcomes, while the opposite is true for parents of high-achieving students. These results suggest that evaluations based solely on test scores may be misleading about the benefits of school choice (particularity for low-achieving students), and education interventions more broadly.
为了探索学校对考试成绩的因果影响是否衡量了它们对学生的整体影响，我们利用看似合理的外生学校作业和来自特立尼达和多巴哥的数据来估计个别学校对若干结果的因果影响。学校对高风险考试的影响与对逮捕、辍学、青少年母亲和正式劳动力市场参与等重要结果的影响微弱相关。为了检验父母的学校偏好是否与这些因果影响相关，我们将其与家长的学校排名表联系起来，并采用离散选择模型来推断学校的偏好。家长选择的学校可以提高高风险考试，甚至取决于同伴质量和平均成绩。家长们还选择能够减少犯罪率和青少年生育率并增加劳动力市场参与度的学校。成绩不佳学生家长的学校选择与学校对非考试成绩的影响相对更密切相关，而成绩优秀学生的家长则相反。这些结果表明，仅仅基于考试成绩的评估可能会误导人们对学校的选择（尤其是对成绩差的学生）和更广泛的教育干预。
03. Measuring belief-dependent preferences without data on beliefs
Posted on: 29 April 2022
Charles Bellemare
Université Laval and Alexander Sebald, Copenhagen Business School
Abstract: We derive bounds on the causal effect of belief-dependent preferences (reciprocity and guilt aversion) on choices in sequential two-player games without data on the (higher-order) beliefs of players. We show how informative bounds can be derived by exploiting a specific invariance property common to those preferences. We illustrate our approach by analyzing data from an experiment conducted in Denmark. Our approach produces tight bounds on the causal effect of reciprocity in the games we consider. These bounds suggest there exists significant reciprocity in our population — a result also substantiated by the participants’ answers to a post-experimental questionnaire. On the other hand, our approach yields high implausible estimates of guilt aversion — participants would be willing, in some games, to pay at least 3 Danish crowns (DKK) to avoid letting others down by one DKK. We contrast our estimated bounds with point estimates obtained using data on stated higher-order beliefs, keeping all other aspects of the model unchanged. We find that point estimates fall within our estimated bounds, suggesting that elicited higher-order belief data in our experiment is weakly (if at all) affected by various reporting biases.
我们在没有玩家的（高阶）信仰数据的情况下，推导出依赖于信仰的偏好（互惠和内疚厌恶）对连续的双人游戏中的选择的因果效应的界限。我们展示了如何通过利用这些偏好共有的特定不变性来推导信息界限。我们通过分析在丹麦进行的一个实验的数据来说明我们的方法。我们的方法对我们考虑的游戏中互惠的因果效应产生了严格的界限。这些界限表明我们的人群中存在显着的互惠性——参与者对实验后问卷的回答也证实了这一结果。另一方面，我们的方法产生了对内疚厌恶的高度难以置信的估计--在某些游戏中，参与者愿意付出至少3丹麦克朗（DKK）来避免让别人失望一丹麦克朗。我们将我们的估计界限与使用声明的高阶信念数据得到的点估计进行对比，模型的所有其他方面保持不变。我们发现，点估计值落在我们的估计范围内，这表明在我们的实验中引起的高阶信念数据受各种报告偏见的影响很弱(如果存在的情况)。
04. Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights
Posted on: 29 April 2022
Alvaro Calderon
Stanford University
Vasiliki Fouka
Stanford University
Marco Tabellini
Harvard Business School
Abstract: Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized racial discrimination. This paper shows that the Great Migration and support for civil rights are causally linked. Predicting Black inflows with a shift-share instrument, we find that the Great Migration raised support for the Democratic Party, increased Congress members’ propensity to promote civil rights legislation, and encouraged pro-civil rights activism outside the US South. We provide different pieces of evidence that support for civil rights was not confined to the Black electorate, but was also shared by segments of the white population.
1940年至1970年间，在第二次大迁徙中，有400多万非裔美国人从美国南方迁往北方。同一时期，民权运动在结束制度化的种族歧视方面进行了斗争并最终取得了成功。本文表明，大移民和对民权的支持是有因果关系的。用转移份额工具预测黑人的流入，我们发现大移民提高了对民主党的支持，增加了国会议员促进民权立法的倾向，并鼓励美国南方以外的支持民权活动。我们提供了不同的证据，表明对民权的支持不仅限于黑人选民，而且也得到了部分白人人口的认同。
Link:https://www.restud.com/paper/racial-diversity-and-racial-policy-preferences-the-great-migration-and-civil-rights/
05. Affordable Housing and City Welfare
Posted on: 29 April 2022
Jack Favilukis
University of British Columbia Sauder School
Pierre Mabille
INSEAD
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia University Graduate School of Business
Abstract: Housing affordability is the main policy challenge for most large cities in the world. Zoning changes, rent control, housing vouchers, and tax credits are the main levers employed by policy makers. How effective are they at combatting the affordability crisis? We build a dynamic stochastic spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the effect of these policies on the well-being of its citizens. The model endogenizes house prices, rents, construction, labor supply, output, income and wealth inequality, the location decisions of households within the city as well as inter-city migration. Its main novel features are risk, risk aversion, and incomplete risk-sharing. We calibrate the model to the New York MSA. Housing affordability policies carry substantial insurance value but affect aggregate housing and labor supply and cause misallocation in labor and housing markets. Housing affordability policies that enhance access to this insurance especially for the neediest households create substantial net welfare gains.
住房负担能力是世界上大多数大城市的主要政策挑战。区划变更、租金控制、住房券和税收抵免是政策制定者采用的主要杠杆。它们在应对负担能力危机方面的效果如何？我们建立了一个动态随机空间平衡模型，以评估这些政策对其公民福祉的影响。该模型将房价、租金、建筑、劳动力供应、产出、收入和财富不平等、家庭在城市内的位置决定以及城市间的迁移等因素内生化。其主要的新特征是风险、风险规避和不完全风险分担。我们将该模型校准到纽约MSA。住房可负担性政策有很大的保险价值，但会影响总的住房和劳动力供应，并导致劳动力和住房市场的错误配置。特别是对最有需要的家庭来说，加强获得这种保险的住房负担能力政策会创造大量的净福利收益。
Link:https://www.restud.com/paper/affordable-housing-and-city-welfare/
06. Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines
Posted on: 29 April 2022
Amanda E. Kowalski
University of Michigan
Abstract: Mammography guidelines have weakened in response to evidence that mammograms diagnose breast cancers that would never eventually cause symptoms, a phenomenon called “overdiagnosis.” Given concerns about overdiagnosis, instead of recommending mammograms, US guidelines encourage women aged 40-49 to get them as they see fit. To assess whether these guidelines target women effectively, I propose an approach that examines mammography behavior within an influential clinical trial that followed participants long enough to find overdiagnosis. I find that women who are more likely to receive mammograms are healthier and have higher socioeconomic status. More importantly, I find that the 20-year level of overdiagnosis is at least 3.5 times higher among women who are most likely to receive mammograms. At least 36% of their cancers are overdiagnosed. These findings imply that US guidelines encourage mammograms among healthier women who are more likely to be overdiagnosed by them. Guidelines in other countries do not.
有证据表明，乳房X光检查诊断出的乳腺癌最终不会引起症状，这种现象被称为 "过度诊断"，因此，乳房X光检查指南已经被削弱了。鉴于对过度诊断的担忧，美国的指南不建议进行乳房X光检查，而是鼓励40-49岁的妇女在她们认为合适的时候进行检查。为了评估这些指南是否有效地针对妇女，我提出了一种方法，在一项有影响力的临床试验中研究乳房X光检查行为，该试验对参与者进行了足够长的跟踪，以发现过度诊断。我发现，更有可能接受乳房X光检查的妇女更健康，社会经济地位更高。更重要的是，我发现在最有可能接受乳房X光检查的妇女中，20年的过度诊断水平至少要高出3.5倍。她们中至少有36%的癌症被过度诊断。这些发现意味着美国的指南鼓励在更健康的妇女中进行乳房X光检查，而这些妇女更有可能被其过度诊断。其他国家的指南没有。
Link:https://www.restud.com/paper/behavior-within-a-clinical-trial-and-implications-for-mammography-guidelines/
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