学术前沿速递｜经济学顶刊AER，QJE，JPE，RES，Econometrica 最新发表（5.27-6.2）
本文汇总了经济学国际顶级期刊《American Economic Review》、《Quarterly Journal of Economics》、《Journal of Political Economy》、《The Review of Economic Studies》和《Econometrica》近期即将发表的论文，提供经济学研究领域最新学术动态。
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Forthcoming Articles
01. Test Design Under Falsification
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Eduardo Perez-Richet
Sciences Po, CEPR
Vasiliki Skreta
Vasiliki Skreta
Abstract: We study the optimal design of tests with manipulable inputs. Tests take a unidimensional state of the world as input and output, an informative signal to guide a receiver's approve or reject decision. The receiver wishes to only approve states that comply with her baseline standard. An agent with a preference for approval can covertly falsify the state of the world at a cost. We characterize receiver-optimal tests and show they rely on productive falsification by compliant states. They work by setting a more stringent operational standard, and granting noncompliant states a positive approval probability to deter them from falsifying to the standard. We also study how falsification-detection technologies improve optimal tests. They allow the designer to build an implicit cost of falsification into the test, in the form of signal devaluations. Exploiting this channel requires enriching the signal space.
我们研究具有可操纵输入的测试的最佳设计。测试将世界上的一个单维状态作为输入和输出，一个信息信号来指导接收者的批准或拒绝决定。接收者希望只批准符合她的基线标准的状态。一个倾向于批准的代理人可以暗中伪造世界的状态，并为此付出代价。我们描述了接收方最佳测试的特点，并表明它们依赖于符合标准的状态的生产性伪造。它们通过设定一个更严格的操作标准，并给予不符合标准的国家一个正的批准概率，以阻止他们伪造标准。我们还研究了伪造检测技术如何改进最佳测试。它们允许设计者以信号贬值的形式在测试中建立一个隐含的造假成本。利用这一渠道需要丰富信号空间。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16346
02. Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis With Panel Data From China
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Tasso Adamopoulos
York University
Loren Brandt
University of Toronto
Jessica Leight
International Food Policy Research Institute)
Diego Restuccia
University of Toronto
Abstract: We use household-level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within-village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misallocation) and (2) the allocation of workers across sectors, in particular the type of farmers who operate in agriculture (selection). Selection substantially amplifies the productivity effect of distortionary policies by affecting occupational choices that worsen average ability in agriculture.
我们使用中国家庭层面的面板数据和一个定量框架来记录农业中要素错配的程度和后果。我们发现，在中国农村，与土地制度相关的土地和资本市场都存在大量的村内摩擦，这些摩擦不成比例地限制了生产力较高的农民。这些摩擦通过影响两个关键的边际而降低了农业的总生产率：（1）资源在农民之间的分配（错配）和（2）工人在各部门的分配，特别是在农业中经营的农民的类型（选择）。选择通过影响职业选择，使农业的平均能力恶化，从而大大放大了扭曲性政策的生产力效应。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16598
03. The Limits of ONETARY ECONOMICS: On Money as a Constraint on Market Power
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Ricardo Lagos
New York University
Shengxing Zhang
London School of Economics
Abstract: We formulate a generalization of the traditional medium-of-exchange function of money in contexts where there is imperfect competition in the intermediation of credit, settlement, or payment services used to conduct transactions. We find that the option to settle transactions with money strengthens the stance of sellers of goods and services in relation to intermediaries, and show this mechanism is operative even for sellers who never exercise the option to sell for money. These latent money demand considerations imply that in general, in contrast to current conventional wisdom in policy-oriented research in monetary economics, monetary policy can remain effective through medium-of-exchange transmission channels—even in highly developed credit economies where the share of monetary transactions is negligible.
我们对货币的传统交换媒介功能进行了概括，即在用于交易的信贷、结算或支付服务的中介中存在不完全竞争的情况下。我们发现，用货币结算交易的选择会加强商品和服务的卖家对中介机构的立场，并表明这一机制甚至对那些从未行使过货币销售选择权的卖家也是有效的。这些潜在的货币需求考虑意味着，一般来说，与当前货币经济学政策导向研究中的传统观点相反，货币政策可以通过交换媒介的传导渠道保持有效--即使在高度发达的信贷经济体中，货币交易的份额可以忽略不计。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17319
04. Dual-Self Representations of Ambiguity Preferences
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Madhav Chandrasekher
Mira Frick
Yale University
Ryota Iijima
Ryota Iijima
Yves Le Yaouanq
Ecole Polytechnique, CREST, Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Abstract: We propose a class of multiple-prior representations of preferences under ambiguity, where the belief the decision-maker (DM) uses to evaluate an uncertain prospect is the outcome of a game played by two conflicting forces, Pessimism and Optimism. The model does not restrict the sign of the DM's ambiguity attitude, and we show that it provides a unified framework through which to characterize different degrees of ambiguity aversion, and to represent the co-existence of negative and positive ambiguity attitudes within individuals as documented in experiments. We prove that our baseline representation, dual-self expected utility (DSEU), yields a novel representation of the class of invariant biseparable preferences (Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci (2004)), which drops uncertainty aversion from maxmin expected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)), while extensions of DSEU allow for more general departures from independence. We also provide foundations for a generalization of prior-by-prior belief updating to our model.
我们提出了一类模棱两可的偏好表述，其中决策者（DM）用来评估不确定前景的信念是由两种相互冲突的力量--悲观主义和乐观主义--进行博弈的结果。该模型并不限制DM的模糊态度的符号，我们表明它提供了一个统一的框架，通过它来描述不同程度的模糊厌恶，并代表实验中记录的个人内部消极和积极模糊态度的共存。我们证明了我们的基线表示，即双自预期效用（DSEU），产生了一类不变的双分离偏好的新表示（Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci (2004)），它从最大预期效用（Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)）中放弃了不确定性厌恶，而DSEU的扩展允许更普遍的独立偏离。我们还为先验信念更新在我们模型中的一般化提供了基础。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17502
05. Long-Run Effects of Dynamically Assigned Treatments: A New Methodology and an Evaluation of Training Effects on Earnings
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Gerard J. van den Berg
University of Groningen
Johan Vikström
Uppsala University
Abstract: We propose and implement a new method to estimate treatment effects in settings where individuals need to be in a certain state (e.g., unemployment) to be eligible for a treatment, treatments may commence at different points in time, and the outcome of interest is realized after the individual left the initial state. An example concerns the effect of training on earnings in subsequent employment. Any evaluation needs to take into account that some of those who are not trained at a certain time in unemployment will leave unemployment before training while others will be trained later. We are interested in effects of the treatment at a certain elapsed duration compared to “no treatment at any subsequent duration.” We prove identification under unconfoundedness and propose inverse probability weighting estimators. A key feature is that weights given to outcome observations of nontreated depend on the remaining time in the initial state. We study effects of a training program for unemployed workers in Sweden. Estimates are positive and sizeable, exceeding those obtained with common static methods. This calls for a reappraisal of training as a tool to bring unemployed back to work.
我们提出并实施了一种新的方法来估计治疗效果，在这种情况下，个人需要处于某种状态（如失业）才有资格接受治疗，治疗可能在不同的时间点开始，而感兴趣的结果是在个人离开初始状态后实现的。一个例子是关于培训对随后就业的收入的影响。任何评估都需要考虑到，在失业的某个时间段内，一些没有接受培训的人将在培训前离开失业岗位，而另一些人将在之后接受培训。我们感兴趣的是，与 "在随后的任何时间里不进行治疗 "相比，在某一经过的时间里进行治疗的效果。我们证明了在非封闭性下的识别，并提出了反概率加权的估计。一个关键的特点是，给予未接受治疗的结果观察的权重取决于初始状态的剩余时间。我们研究了瑞典失业工人的培训项目的效果。估计结果是积极的和可观的，超过了用普通静态方法得到的结果。这就要求我们重新评估培训作为使失业者重返工作岗位的工具。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17522
06. Affirmative Action in India via Vertical, Horizontal, and Overlapping Reservations
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Tayfun Sönmez
Boston College
M. Bumin Yenmez
Boston College
Abstract: Sanctioned by its constitution, India is home to the world's most comprehensive affirmative action program, where historically discriminated groups are protected with vertical reservations implemented as “set asides,” and other disadvantaged groups are protected with horizontal reservations implemented as “minimum guarantees.” A mechanism mandated by the Supreme Court in 1995 suffers from important anomalies, triggering countless litigations in India. Foretelling a recent reform correcting the flawed mechanism, we propose the 2SMG mechanism that resolves all anomalies, and characterize it with desiderata reflecting laws of India. Subsequently rediscovered with a high court judgment and enforced in Gujarat, 2SMG is also endorsed by Saurav Yadav v. State of UP (2020), in a Supreme Court ruling that rescinded the flawed mechanism. While not explicitly enforced, 2SMG is indirectly enforced for an important subclass of applications in India, because no other mechanism satisfies the new mandates of the Supreme Court.
经宪法批准，印度拥有世界上最全面的平等权利行动方案，历史上受歧视的群体受到纵向保留的保护，被称为 "预留"，其他弱势群体受到横向保留的保护，被称为 "最低保障"。1995年最高法院授权的一个机制存在着重要的反常现象，在印度引发了无数的诉讼。预示着最近的改革纠正了有缺陷的机制，我们提出了2SMG机制，解决了所有的反常现象，并以反映印度法律的要求来描述它。随后，2SMG在高等法院的判决中被重新发现，并在古吉拉特邦得到执行，Saurav Yadav在UP州（2020年）最高法院的裁决中也认可了2SMG，该裁决撤销了有缺陷的机制。虽然没有明确执行，但2SMG在印度的一个重要子类申请中被间接执行，因为没有其他机制可以满足最高法院的新任务。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17788
07. Adaptive Bayesian Estimation of Discrete-Continuous Distributions Under Smoothness and Sparsity
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Andriy Norets
Brown University
Justinas Pelenis
Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna
Abstract: We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and a possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we derive lower bounds on the estimation rates. Next, we consider a nonparametric mixture of normals model that uses continuous latent variables for the discrete part of the observations. We show that the posterior in this model contracts at rates that are equal to the derived lower bounds up to a log factor. Thus, Bayesian mixture of normals models can be used for (up to a log factor) optimal adaptive estimation of mixed discrete-continuous distributions. The proposed model demonstrates excellent performance in simulations mimicking the first stage in the estimation of structural discrete choice models.
我们考虑在各向异性的平稳性条件下和分布的离散部分的支持点数量可能增加的情况下对离散-连续混合分布进行非参数估计。对于这些设置，我们得出了估计率的下限。接下来，我们考虑了一个非参数的正态混合模型，该模型对观测的离散部分使用连续的潜变量。我们表明，这个模型中的后验收缩率与导出的下限相等，最高为对数系数。因此，贝叶斯常态混合模型可用于（最多对数因子）混合离散-连续分布的最佳自适应估计。所提出的模型在模仿结构性离散选择模型估计的第一阶段的模拟中表现出优异的性能。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17884
08. Testing for Differences in Stochastic Network Structure
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Eric Auerbach
Northwestern University
Abstract: How can one determine whether a treatment, such as the introduction of a social program or trade shock, alters agents' incentives to form links in a network? This paper proposes analogs of a two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, widely used in the literature to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects, for network data. It first specifies a testing problem in which the null hypothesis is that two networks are drawn from the same random graph model. It then describes two randomization tests based on the magnitude of the difference between the networks' adjacency matrices as measured by the 2 → 2 and ∞ → 1 operator norms. Power properties of the tests are examined analytically, in simulation, and through two real-world applications. A key finding is that the test based on the ∞ → 1 norm can be much more powerful for the kinds of sparse and degree-heterogeneous networks common in economics.
如何确定一种处理方法，如社会项目的引入或贸易冲击，是否改变了代理人在网络中形成联系的动机？本文提出了双样本Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验的类似方法，该检验在文献中广泛用于检验网络数据的无处理效应的无效假设。它首先规定了一个检验问题，其中的无效假设是两个网络来自同一个随机图模型。然后，它描述了两种基于网络邻接矩阵之间差异大小的随机化检验，这些差异由2→2和∞→1算子规范衡量。通过分析、模拟和两个真实世界的应用，检验了测试的功率特性。一个关键的发现是，对于经济学中常见的那种稀疏的、程度不一的网络，基于∞→1准则的测试可以更加有力。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18093
09. Randomize at Your Own Risk: On the Observability of Ambiguity Aversion
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Aurélien Baillon
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Yoram Halevy
The University of Toronto
Chen Li
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Abstract: Facing several decisions, people may consider each one in isolation or integrate them into a single optimization problem. Isolation and integration may yield different choices, for instance, if uncertainty is involved, and only one randomly selected decision is implemented. We investigate whether the random incentive system in experiments that measure ambiguity aversion provides a hedge against ambiguity, making ambiguity-averse subjects who integrate behave as if they were ambiguity neutral. Our results suggest that about half of the ambiguity averse subjects integrated their choices in the experiment into a single problem, whereas the other half isolated. Our design further enables us to disentangle properties of the integrating subjects' preferences over compound objects induced by the random incentive system and the choice problems in the experiment.
面对几个决定，人们可以孤立地考虑每一个决定，也可以把它们整合到一个单一的优化问题中。孤立和整合可能会产生不同的选择，例如，如果涉及不确定性，只有一个随机选择的决定被实施。我们研究了在测量模糊性厌恶的实验中，随机激励系统是否提供了对模糊性的对冲，使得对模糊性厌恶的受试者在整合时表现得如同对模糊性中立。我们的结果表明，大约一半的模糊性厌恶被试将他们在实验中的选择整合为一个问题，而另一半则是孤立的。我们的设计进一步使我们能够分离出由随机激励系统和实验中的选择问题所引起的整合主体对复合对象的偏好的特性。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18137
10. Automatic Debiased Machine Learning of Causal and Structural Effects
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Victor Chernozhukov
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Whitney K. Newey
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Rahul Singh
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract: Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include policy effects, average derivatives, regression decompositions, average treatment effects, causal mediation, and parameters of economic structural models. The regressions may be high-dimensional, making machine learning useful. Plugging machine learners into identifying equations can lead to poor inference due to bias from regularization and/or model selection. This paper gives automatic debiasing for linear and nonlinear functions of regressions. The debiasing is automatic in using Lasso and the function of interest without the full form of the bias correction. The debiasing can be applied to any regression learner, including neural nets, random forests, Lasso, boosting, and other high-dimensional methods. In addition to providing the bias correction, we give standard errors that are robust to misspecification, convergence rates for the bias correction, and primitive conditions for asymptotic inference for estimators of a variety of estimators of structural and causal effects. The automatic debiased machine learning is used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated for the NSW job training data and to estimate demand elasticities from Nielsen scanner data while allowing preferences to be correlated with prices and income.
许多因果和结构效应都依赖于回归。例如，政策效应、平均导数、回归分解、平均治疗效果、因果调解和经济结构模型的参数。回归可能是高维的，这使得机器学习很有用。将机器学习者插入到识别方程中，可能会因为正则化或模型选择的偏差而导致推断结果不佳。本文给出了回归的线性和非线性函数的自动去偏移。在使用Lasso和感兴趣的函数时，去偏是自动的，没有偏见修正的完整形式。去偏可以应用于任何回归学习器，包括神经网络、随机森林、拉索、提升和其他高维方法。除了提供偏差校正外，我们还给出了对错误指定具有鲁棒性的标准误差、偏差校正的收敛率，以及各种结构效应和因果效应估计器的渐进推断的原始条件。自动去偏的机器学习被用来估计新南威尔士州就业培训数据对受训者的平均治疗效果，并从尼尔森扫描仪数据中估计需求弹性，同时允许偏好与价格和收入相关联。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18515
11. Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Jennifer La'O
Columbia University
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi
Northwestern University
Abstract: This paper studies the optimal conduct of monetary policy in a multisector economy in which firms buy and sell intermediate goods over a production network. We first provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the monetary policy's ability to implement flexible-price equilibria in the presence of nominal rigidities and show that, generically, no monetary policy can implement the first-best allocation. We then characterize the optimal policy in terms of the economy's production network and the extent and nature of nominal rigidities. Our characterization result yields general principles for the optimal conduct of monetary policy in the presence of input-output linkages: it establishes that optimal policy stabilizes a price index with greater weights assigned to larger, stickier, and more upstream industries, as well as industries with less sticky upstream suppliers but stickier downstream customers. In a calibrated version of the model, we find that implementing the optimal policy can result in quantitatively meaningful welfare gains.
本文研究了多部门经济中货币政策的最优行为，其中企业通过生产网络购买和销售中间产品。我们首先为货币政策在名义僵化的情况下实施灵活价格均衡的能力提供了一个必要和充分的条件，并表明，一般来说，没有货币政策可以实施第一最佳的分配。然后，我们根据经济的生产网络以及名义刚性的程度和性质来描述最佳政策。我们的表征结果产生了在投入产出联系存在的情况下货币政策最优行为的一般原则：它确定了最优政策能够稳定价格指数，并将更大的权重分配给更大、更密集和更多的上游产业，以及上游供应商粘性较小但下游客户粘性较大的产业。在该模型的校准版本中，我们发现实施最优政策可以带来数量上有意义的福利收益。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18627
12. Signaling Under Double-Crossing Preferences
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Chia-Hui Chen
Kyoto University
Junichiro Ishida
Osaka University
Wing Suen
University of Hong Kong
Abstract: This paper provides a general analysis of signaling under double-crossing preferences with a continuum of types. There are natural economic environments where the indifference curves of two types cross twice, such that the celebrated single-crossing property fails to hold. Equilibrium exhibits a threshold type below which types choose actions that are fully revealing and above which they pool in a pairwise fashion, with a gap separating the actions chosen by these two sets of types. The resulting signaling action is quasi-concave in type. We also provide an algorithm to establish equilibrium existence by construction.
本文对具有连续类型的双重交叉偏好下的信号传递进行了一般分析。在一些自然的经济环境中，两种类型的冷漠曲线会有两次交叉，这样著名的单次交叉属性就不能成立。平衡表现为一个阈值类型，在此类型之下，各类型选择的行动是完全暴露的，而在此类型之上，它们以成对的方式汇集在一起，这两组类型选择的行动之间有一个差距。由此产生的信号行动在类型上是准凹的。我们还提供了一种算法，通过构造建立均衡的存在。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19210
13. Managers and Productivity in the Public Sector
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Alessandra Fenizia
The George Washington University
Abstract: This paper studies the impacts of managers in the administrative public sector using novel Italian administrative data containing an output-based measure of productivity. Exploiting the rotation of managers across sites, I find that a one standard deviation increase in managerial talent raises office productivity by 10%. These gains are driven primarily by the exit of older workers who retire when more productive managers take over. I use these estimates to evaluate the optimal allocation of managers to offices. I find that assigning better managers to the largest and most productive offices would increase output by at least 6.9%.
本文利用含有基于产出的生产力衡量标准的新的意大利行政数据，研究行政公共部门中管理人员的影响。利用管理人员在不同地点的轮换，我发现管理人才的一个标准差的增加会使办公室的生产力提高10%。这些收益主要是由年长工人的退出所驱动的，他们在生产力更高的经理人接任时退休。我使用这些估计值来评估管理人员对办公室的最佳分配。我发现，将更好的经理人分配到最大和最有生产力的办公室，将使产出至少增加6.9%。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19244
14. A Modern Gauss–Markov Theorem
Posted on: 27 May 2022
Bruce E. Hansen
University of Wisconsin
Abstract: This paper presents finite-sample efficiency bounds for the core econometric problem of estimation of linear regression coefficients. We show that the classical Gauss–Markov theorem can be restated omitting the unnatural restriction to linear estimators, without adding any extra conditions. Our results are lower bounds on the variances of unbiased estimators. These lower bounds correspond to the variances of the the least squares estimator and the generalized least squares estimator, depending on the assumption on the error covariances. These results show that we can drop the label “linear estimator” from the pedagogy of the Gauss–Markov theorem. Instead of referring to these estimators as BLUE, they can legitimately be called BUE (best unbiased estimators).
本文介绍了线性回归系数估计这一核心计量经济学问题的有限样本效率界线。我们表明，经典的高斯-马尔科夫定理可以重述，省略对线性估计的不自然限制，而不增加任何额外条件。我们的结果是无偏估计器方差的下界。这些下限对应于最小二乘估计器和广义最小二乘估计器的方差，取决于对误差协方差的假设。这些结果表明，我们可以从高斯-马尔科夫定理的教学法中放弃 "线性估计器 "的标签。与其把这些估计器称为BLUE，不如把它们合法地称为BUE（最佳无偏估计器）。
Link: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19255
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