FABRIZIO ZILIBOTTI 苏黎世大学（现：耶鲁大学）
We construct a growth model consistent with China's economic transition: high output growth, sustained returns on capital, reallocation within the manufacturing sector, and a large trade surplus. Entrepreneurial firms use more productive technologies, but due to financial imperfections they must finance investments through internal savings. State-owned firms have low productivity but survive because of better access to credit markets. High-productivity firms outgrow low-productivity firms if entrepreneurs have sufficiently high savings. The downsizing of financially integrated firms forces domestic savings to be invested abroad, generating a foreign surplus. A calibrated version of the theory accounts quantitatively for China’s economic transition.
02. Hazards of Expropriation: Tenure Insecurity and Investment in Rural China
HANAN G. JACOBY 世界银行
GUO LI 世界银行
SCOTT ROZELLE 加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校（现：斯坦福大学）
We use household data from northeast China to examine the link between investment and land tenure insecurity induced by China's system of village-level land reallocation. We quantify expropriation risk using a hazard analysis of individual plot tenures and incorporate the predicted "hazards of expropriation" into an empirical analysis of plot-level investment. Our focus is on organic fertilizer use, which has long-lasting benefits for soil quality. Although we find that higher expropriation risk significantly reduces application of organic fertilizer, a welfare analysis shows that guaranteeing land tenure in this part of China would yield only minimal efficiency gains.
03. Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters
AMIT K. KHANDELWAL 哥伦比亚大学商学院
PETER K. SCHOTT 耶鲁大学管理学院
If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the elimination of externally imposed export quotas. Both the surge in export volume and the decline in export prices following quota removal are driven by net entry. This outcome is inconsistent with a model in which quotas are allocated based on firm productivity, implying misallocation of resources. Removing this misallocation accounts for a substantial share of the overall gain in productivity associated with quota removal.
04. WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms
LOREN BRANDT 多伦多大学
JOHANNES VAN BIESEBROECK 鲁汶大学、经济政策研究中心
We examine the effects of trade liberalization in China on the evolution of markups and productivity of manufacturing firms. Although these dimensions of performance cannot be separately identified when firm output is measured by revenue, detailed price deflators make it possible to estimate the average effect of tariff reductions on both. Several novel findings emerge. First, cuts in output tariffs reduce markups, but raise productivity. Second, pro-competitive effects are most important among incumbents, while efficiency gains dominate for new entrants. Third, cuts in input tariffs raise both markups and productivity. We highlight mechanisms that explain these findings in the Chinese context.
05. Group Size and Incentives to Contribute: A Natural Experiment at Chinese Wikipedia
In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between group size and incentives to contribute in the setting of Chinese Wikipedia, the Chinese language version of an online encyclopedia that relies entirely on voluntary contributions. The group at Chinese Wikipedia is composed of Chinese-speaking people in China and Singapore, and other regions in the world, who are aware of Chinese Wikipedia and have access to it. Our identification hinges on the exogenous reduction in group size at Chinese Wikipedia as a result of the block of Chinese Wikipedia in China in October 2005. During the block, Chinese(except for Hong Kong and Taiwan) could not use or contribute to Chinese Wikipedia, although contributors outside China could continue to do so. We find that contribution levels of these nonblocked contributors decrease by 42.8 percent on average as a result of the block. We attribute the cause to social effects: contributors receive social benefits from their contributions, and the shrinking group size reduces these social benefits. Consistent with our explanation, we find that the more contributors value social benefits, the greater the reduction in their contributions after the block.
06. The Multitask Theory of State Enterprise Reform: Empirical Evidence from China
Given the poor financial performance of SOEs, the coexistence of state ownership and private ownership in China is a puzzling phenomenon. Does state ownership exist solely for the benefit of politicians, as is modeled by Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny (1994), or has state ownership played any role in China's spectacular growth? Is there any rationale behind China's gradual and selective approach toward privatizing its SOEs? What types of SOEs does the Chinese government choose to privatize? What are the consequences of privatization? In this paper, we offer a theory of SOE reform in China, and make predictions regarding the types of SOEs to be chosen for privatization and the results of privatization. We then present empirical evidence supporting the basic premise of the theory and its theoretical predictions.
07. Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China
HIAU LOOI KEE 世界银行
China has defied the declining trend in domestic content in exports in many countries. This paper studies China's rising domestic content in exports using firm- and customs transaction-level data. The approach embraces firm heterogeneity and hence reduces aggregation bias. The study finds that the substitution of domestic for imported materials by individual processing exporters caused China's domestic content in exports to increase from 65 to 70 percent in the period 2000-2007. Such substitution was induced by the country's trade and investment liberalization, which deepened its engagement in global value chains and led to a greater variety of domestic materials becoming available at lower prices.
08. Capital Accumulation, Private Property, and Rising Inequality in China, 1978–2015
THOMAS PIKETTY 巴黎经济学院
LI YANG 巴黎经济学院（现：德国经济研究所）
GABRIEL ZUCMAN 加州大学伯克利分校
We combine national accounts, surveys, and new tax data to study the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth in China from 1978 to 2015. The national wealth-income ratio increased from 350 percent in 1978 to 700 percent in 2015, while the share of public property in national wealth declined from 70 percent to 30 percent. We provide sharp upward revision of official inequality estimates. The top 10 percent income share rose from 27 percent to 41 percent between 1978 and 2015; the bottom 50 percent share dropped from 27 percent to 15 percent. China's inequality levels used to be close to Nordic countries and are now approaching US levels.
09. Who Are China's Entrepreneurs?
SIMEON DJANKOV 世界银行
GÉRARD ROLAND 加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校和经济政策研究中心
EKATERINA ZHURAVSKAYA 俄罗斯新经济学院经济与金融研究中心和经济政策研究中心（现：巴黎经济学院）
Although there are studies on each perspective, little work looks at each of these factors taking the others into account. This is precisely what we do in this paper, using a new dataset of Chinese entrepreneurs and a matching sample of nonentrepreneurs with similar age, gender, and educational characteristics. The survey covers both entrepreneurs and nonentrepreneurs in order to understand how they differ in individual characteristics, family background, social networks, values and beliefs, and perceptions of the institutional environment. The data further allow us to separate Chinese entrepreneurs into two groups, by necessity and by opportunity, and to differentiate nonentrepreneurs in three groups: those who never thought to be entrepreneurs, those who thought but never became entrepreneurs, and those who became entrepreneurs but eventually failed. This is a richer dataset than a previous survey in Russia (Djankov et al., 2005, 2006).
10. The Chinese Warrants Bubble
In 2005-2008, over a dozen put warrants traded in China went so deep out of the money that they were almost certain to expire worth less. Nonetheless, each warrant was traded more than three times each day at substantially inflated prices. This bubble is unique in that the underlying stock prices make warrant fundamentals publicly observable and that warrants have predetermined finite maturities. This sample allows us to examine a set of bubble theories. In particular, our analysis highlights the joint effects of short-sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in driving bubbles and confirms several key findings of the experimental bubble literature.