本文汇总了经济学国际顶级期刊《American Economic Review》、《Quarterly Journal of Economics》、《Journal of Political Economy》、《The Review of Economic Studies》和《Econometrica》近期即将发表的论文，提供经济学研究领域最新学术动态。
01. Signaling and Employer Learning with Instruments
Gaurab Aryal（University of Virginia）
Manudeep Bhuller（University of Oslo）
Fabian Lange（McGill University）
Abstract: This paper considers the use of instruments to identify and estimate private and social returns to education within a model of employer learning. What an instrument identifies depends on whether it is hidden from, or transparent (i.e., observed) to, the employers. A hidden instrument identifies private returns to education, and a transparent instrument identifies social returns to education. We use variation in compulsory schooling laws across non-central and central municipalities in Norway to, respectively, construct hidden and transparent instruments. We estimate a private return of 7.9%, of which 70% is due to increased productivity and the remaining 30% is due to signaling.
02. The Demand for Insurance and Rationale for a Mandate: Evidence from Workers’ Compensation Insurance
Marika Cabral（University of Texas at Austin）
Can Cui（University of Texas at Austin）
Michael Dworsky（RAND Corporation）
Abstract: Workers’ compensation insurance, which provides no-fault coverage for work-related injuries, is mandatory in nearly all states. We use administrative data from a unique market without a coverage mandate to estimate the demand for workers’ compensation insurance, leveraging regulatory premium updates for identification. We find that a 1% increase in premiums leads to approximately a 0.3% decline in coverage. Drawing upon these estimates and data on costs, we examine potential justifications for government intervention to increase coverage. This analysis suggests that several forms of market failure—such as adverse selection, market power, and externalities—may not justify a mandate in this setting.
03. How Do National Firms Respond to Local Cost Shocks?
R. Andrew Butters（Indiana University）
Daniel W. Sacks（Indiana University）
Boyoung Seo（Indiana University）
Abstract: Recent research shows prices are insensitive to local demand conditions because national chains charge geographically uniform prices. We examine the price response to local cost shocks, including 68 excise tax changes, 76 sales tax changes, and other geographically-based cost differences, using data on 35,151 retail stores in 96 multistate chains. We find local cost shocks are passed-through to local prices, with no spillovers to unaffected stores in otherwise affected chains, and at similar rates for national and local chains. Firms adjust local prices according to local cost changes, suggesting retailers respond asymmetrically to local cost and demand shocks.
01. The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States
Juan Herreño（UC San Diego）
Emi Nakamura（UC Berkeley）
Jón Steinsson（UC Berkeley）
Published: 16 February 2022
Abstract: We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.
01. The Impact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from Emissions Cheating
Diane Alexander（University of Pennsylvania）
Hannes Schwandt（Northwestern University）
Published:16 February 2022
Abstract: In 2008, Volkswagen introduced a new generation of “Clean Diesel” cars and heavily marketed them to environmentally conscious U.S. consumers. Unknown to the public, these cars were anything but clean, emitting pollutants up to 150 times the level of comparable gas-fueled cars. We study the rollout of these emissions-cheating diesel cars across the United States from 2008–2015 as a natural experiment to examine the impact of moderate levels of car pollution on infant and child health in the general population. Using the universe of vehicle registrations, we find that an additional cheating diesel car per 1,000 cars increases PM2.5, PM10, and ozone by 2, 2.2, and 1.3 percent, respectively, while the low birth weight rate and infant mortality rate increase by 1.9 and 1.7 percent, respectively. Similar impacts are found for acute asthma attacks in children. These health impacts occur at all pollution levels and across the socioeconomic spectrum.
02. The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation
Jérôme Adda（Bocconi University, BIDSA and IGIER）
Christian Dustmann（University College London and Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration）
Joseph-Simon Görlach（Bocconi University, BIDSA, CReAM, IGIER and LEAP）
Published:12 February 2022
Abstract: This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants’ careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment of immigrants’ career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies which initially restrict residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’ career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers.
03. Welfare and Redistribution in Residential Electricity Markets with Solar Power
Fabian Feger（University of Bern）
Nicola Pavanini（Tilburg University 、 CEPR）
Doina Radulescu（University of Bern, KPM, CESifo and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research）
Published:12 February 2022
Abstract: An increasing number of households installing solar panels and consuming the energy thus produced raises two challenges for regulators: network financing and vertical equity. We propose alternative tariff and subsidy designs for policymakers to incentivise solar panel adoptions and guarantee that network costs are recovered, while trading off efficiency, equity, and welfare motives. We estimate a structural model of energy demand and solar panel adoption, using a unique matched dataset on energy consumption, prices, income, wealth, solar panel installations, and building characteristics for 165,000 households in Switzerland from 2008-2014. Our counterfactuals recommend the optimal solar panel installation cost subsidies and two-part energy tariffs to achieve a solar energy target. We show that, relative to installation cost subsidies, relying on marginal prices to incentivise solar panel adoptions is more cost efficient and progressive across the income distribution, but generates a larger aggregate welfare loss.